For more than 30 years, Bill McInturff has surveyed public opinion and developed messages to defend political candidates on complex public policy issues. Along with Hart Research Associates, McInturff conducts the NBC News Poll. He is a partner of Public Opinion Strategies, one of the nation’s largest political and public affairs survey firms, which represents five governors, nine U.S. Senators, and more than 40 members of Congress.
At the MPL Association Annual Conference, McInturff will speak at the Gold Sponsor Luncheon on Thurs., May 9. The session is “Election Year Update—Reading the Tea Leaves.” We spoke with him about his upcoming presentation.
IML: Bill, what strikes you about the mood of Americans today as we head into a pivotal election?
Bill: First, we are in the highest wrong-track period in the 40 to 50 years this question has been asked. Second, we have the strongest segmentation by political party that we’ve seen since the 1930s. Here are some examples of our recent findings that validate these statements:
- 73% of Americans—a record high—say that the country is headed in the wrong direction. This level of sustained pessimism hasn’t been seen in the history of the NBC News Poll back to 1989
- 19% of Americans—a record low—feel confident that their children’s generation will be better off than they are
- 70% of voters believe that Joe Biden should not run again for president
- 60% of voters believe that Donald Trump should not run again for president
IML: What is the effect of the strong segmentation by party?
Bill: When I ran Congressional races in the early 1980s, we would have about 150 congressional seats where they would vote one way for president, one way for Congress and they’d be different. We used to have New England Republican moderates. There used to be conservative Democrats in the South. That’s all realigned. So, we’ve gone from 150 to 180 House seats where people would split a ticket. There are no split seats anymore, and now 90-plus of U.S. Senators are in states where the same party carried the White House. We see a similar situation in the House where only 20 or 30 seats are actually competitive Congressional races. There are rare exceptions like Susan Collins, Sherrod Brown, and Jon Tester.
IML: What else strikes you about the mood of the electorate?
Bill: In the last two years, we also had the worst kind of consumer confidence numbers in history. Since the 1950s, this was about the lowest number ever. Then, in the last two months consumer confidence has surged by the highest number in two months since 1991. So, we’re seeing a recovery in attitudes towards the economy.
One other thing…almost nobody wants these two people to run for President.
IML: What’s behind that sentiment?
Bill: The way America is supposed to work, we’re a market-based country but in this market-based country the market is not getting what they want. Our politicians, they’re always kind of a late night joke and we make fun of them, but we’ve never seen two people starting the presidential race with this level of animus. We’re going to have the longest general election in history and the money spent is likely to be historic.
IML: What’s changed about the money, the financing of campaigns?
Bill: The major PAC that’s supporting Biden buying $250 million dollars of TV and digital ads for the fall campaign between the Democratic convention and the general election. In the old days when there was public financing for presidential campaigns, a total of $140 million total would be spent on the entire general election. Today, one PAC is spending $250 million dollars just in the handful of swing states just in a few months.
IML: In what other ways is the electorate changing?
Bill: We’re seeing a radical shift by generation. Generation Z and younger Millennials are a very, very different generation. Demographers tell us that people over 65 age out of the electorate. That’s the polite way of saying they die. When you look at the attitudes of young Millennials and Gen Z you have to understand those are very, very different attitudes, but in 10 or 15 years that’s the mainstream in the country.
IML: How is that significant?
Bill: They’re the most racially diverse generation in this country’s history and we’re watching kind of the melting pot at play but that’s another reason the attitudinal numbers are so different.
IML: Tell us about those numbers—what’s going on with polling as we head towards the election?
Bill: There’s polling and how well that’s working and there’s polling when Trump is on the ballot and how well that is working. Polling in general is actually working well. Polling with Trump on the ballot not so much. Actual polling results in 2018 and 2022 were really solid. But what’s challenging is when we’re trying to poll voter attitudes and behavior--which is, are you going to vote and who are you going to vote for? Why is polling hard when Trump is on the ballot? Because there is actually is a shy Trump voter.
IML: Can you explain a bit more about that?
Bill: There are people, when asked, who do not want to disclose that they are voting for Trump in a general election. Ironically, we found that out because we asked them. On election night of 2020, we asked people if they refrained from telling their family and friends how they would be voting and 18% of Trump voters said no, "I didn’t tell them," while 8% of Biden voters said, "I didn’t tell them." People don’t as such lie to pollsters, but they will tell us that they are undecided or don’t know, when that’s not really the case.
IML: Any final thoughts?
Bill: This is February—by May it could look completely different. This is a country that is not set in its ways, and it can move very quickly.
IML: Thanks, Bill!
